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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position & Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Echo from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.